Heating Costs & Fuel Choices
What Heat Actually Costs
A winter heating bill is the product of three things: how much heat the house loses, the price of the fuel, and how efficiently the equipment turns that fuel into heat. This hub keeps the three apart, because most cost advice blends them together.
Price Per Unit of Heat, Not Per Bill
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Winter Fuels Outlook (October 6, 2026) forecasts November-to-March household spending of about $640 for natural gas, $1,196 for electricity, $1,246 for propane and $2,115 for heating oil. Those totals cover every use of each home's main heating fuel, so they are not a fuel ranking. The guides here convert EIA prices into the cost of one million Btu of heat actually delivered, so a gas furnace, a heat pump, a propane furnace, an oil boiler and a space heater can be compared on the same footing.
Switching Fuels After the 2026 Rule Changes
The federal 25C heat pump tax credit does not apply to equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025, and DOE Program Notice 26-2 removed fuel-switching upgrades from the HEEHR electrification rebate. Running-cost math now carries more of the decision, and both guides in this hub show their inputs so you can rerun them with your own rates.
Start with the winter forecast by fuel, then the room-by-room question of when a space heater saves money. For a full replacement decision, the heat pump vs gas furnace operating cost method runs the same comparison with your own rates, and the furnace replacement cost guide adds installed prices.
Available Guides
2 guidesWinter Heating Costs 2026-27 by Fuel and Region: EIA's Forecast, Decoded
EIA forecasts November-to-March heating spending of about $640 for natural gas, $1,196 for electricity, $1,246 for propane and $2,115 for heating oil. We convert those prices into the cost of delivered heat.
Space Heater Cost to Run in 2026: Per Hour, Per Month, and When It Beats Central Heat
A 1,500-watt space heater uses 1.5 kWh per hour of element run time, about 27 cents at the August 2026 U.S. average price. State costs, and when zone heating actually saves money.