Winter Heating Costs 2026-27 by Fuel and Region: EIA's Forecast, Decoded

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the average household to spend $640 heating with natural gas from November 2026 through March 2027, down 9% from last winter. Electricity-heated homes are forecast at $1,196 (up 4%), propane at $1,246 (down 3%) and heating oil at $2,115, up 21% because the fuel itself is forecast 34% dearer at $5.26 a gallon. Those four totals answer "what will this winter cost?" for an average house. They do not tell you which fuel is cheapest, and they hide a regional split that matters more than the national headline.

EIA published the forecast in its Winter Fuels Outlook on October 6, 2026, and its next update is due November 10. Everything below uses that release, checked on October 28, 2026. EnergyBS added two things the outlook does not show: the cost of one unit of heat actually delivered into the home, fuel by fuel and region by region, and the heat pump efficiency needed to beat each fuel at this winter's prices. Related guides sit in our heating costs hub.

The forecast in one table

EIA reports four numbers per fuel and region: what the average household spends, the price it pays, how much it uses, and the change from last winter. The heating oil line is U.S.-only; EIA notes that heating oil is used for residential heating mostly in the Northeast. The propane U.S. figure averages the Northeast, Midwest and South only.

Source: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, October 6, 2026. Prices and spending are nominal.

Two patterns jump out. Gas and propane bills fall mainly because prices fall. Heating oil rises because of price alone: use is forecast down 9% on a milder Northeast winter, which softens a 34% price increase into a 21% bill increase. EIA links the oil price rise to higher global crude and distillate prices, reduced global refining activity and low U.S. distillate stocks.

Why the four headline numbers are not a fuel ranking

The tempting reading is "gas costs $640, electricity costs $1,196, so electric heat costs almost twice as much." That comparison is wrong for three reasons, and the outlook itself flags the first one.

The totals cover every use of the heating fuel, not just heat. EIA states that its consumption values are for all end uses associated with a home's main heating fuel. For a home heated with electricity, that means the lights, fridge, laundry, cooking, electronics and water heating are inside the $1,196. EIA subtracts air conditioning from the annual total before allocating the rest to the winter months, but nothing else. A gas-heated home's $640 covers the furnace plus any gas water heater, range or dryer, while its lights and appliances sit on a separate electric bill that is not in the $640. A gas-heated household pays both bills.

Homes heated by each fuel are not the same homes. They differ in climate, size and age. EIA publishes heating oil only as a national figure because oil-heated homes are concentrated in the Northeast, while electricity-heated homes are spread across every region, including mild ones. EIA's own caution is blunt: a resistance heater in a small, well-insulated home could use less energy than an air-source heat pump in a larger, drafty home. The fuel label tells you less than the building does.

Electric heat is two very different technologies. EIA does not split electricity-heated homes into heat pumps and resistance heat (baseboards, electric furnaces, wall heaters). A resistance heater turns one kilowatt-hour into one kilowatt-hour of heat. DOE's Energy Saver guide says a heat pump can provide up to three times more heat than the energy it uses, and the ratio falls as the outdoor temperature drops. Averaging the two together produces a number that describes neither.

So the useful question is not "which fuel has the smallest winter total?" It is "what does one unit of delivered heat cost with my fuel and my equipment, at this winter's prices?" That can be calculated from EIA's own prices.

What a unit of heat costs, fuel by fuel

The method takes three inputs per fuel:

1. The forecast price from the table above.
2. The heat content of the fuel from EIA: 1,036 Btu per cubic foot of natural gas (1.036 million Btu per Mcf), 3,412 Btu per kWh of electricity, 91,452 Btu per gallon of propane, and 138,500 Btu per gallon of heating oil.
3. An equipment efficiency. For furnaces and boilers this is the AFUE rating (the share of fuel energy that ends up as heat in the house over a season). For heat pumps it is a seasonal coefficient of performance (COP): units of heat out per unit of electricity in, averaged over the winter. Electric resistance is COP 1.

Cost per million Btu delivered = price per unit of fuel ÷ (million Btu per unit) ÷ efficiency. For gas at the U.S. average: $13.44 ÷ 1.036 = $12.97 per million Btu of fuel, and $12.97 ÷ 0.95 = $13.66 per million Btu of heat from a 95% furnace.

At national average prices the order is gas, then a good heat pump, then a mediocre heat pump, then propane, oil and resistance heat. The gaps are large. Heat from oil costs about 3.3 times as much as heat from a 95% gas furnace, and resistance heat costs about 3.9 times as much.

Regional prices move the order. Here is the same calculation with EIA's regional forecast prices. EIA does not publish regional heating oil prices or a West propane price, so those cells are blank rather than estimated.

Arithmetic by EnergyBS from EIA regional forecast prices, October 6, 2026 release.

The South stands out. Its forecast gas price ($14.13 per Mcf) is higher than the Midwest's while its electricity price (15.75 cents) is the lowest of the four regions, so a heat pump at COP 3 ($15.39) is already within about a dollar of a 95% gas furnace ($14.36), and it beats an older 80% furnace ($17.05). In the Midwest, cheap gas ($10.38 per Mcf) keeps gas heat the low-cost option by a wide margin. In the Northeast, both gas and electricity are expensive, and the real contest is between a heat pump and propane or oil.

The heat pump efficiency needed to beat each fuel

Flip the calculation around and you get a single number per region that answers "would a heat pump have been cheaper to run this winter?": the seasonal COP at which heat pump heat costs exactly the same as heat from the other fuel. Above that COP the heat pump wins on running cost; below it, it loses.

Break-even COP = cost of resistance heat ÷ cost of heat from the other fuel. The heating oil column uses the U.S. price because EIA forecasts oil only nationally.

Three conclusions follow, and they are the reason this table matters more than the headline totals.

Against heating oil, almost any working heat pump wins on fuel cost this winter. A seasonal COP of 1.2 at the U.S. average electricity price is a very low bar: the heat pump needs to deliver only 1.2 units of heat per unit of electricity averaged over the whole winter, counting the hours when resistance backup strips (COP 1) run. Check the low-temperature capacity and COP listed for the specific equipment before relying on that, and see our cold-climate heat pump performance data. Northeast electricity costs more than the U.S. average (26.19 cents against 18.23), which raises the bar there to roughly 1.7 if you apply the U.S. oil price to the Northeast electricity price. That is still a low hurdle.

Against propane, a heat pump needs a seasonal COP around 2 in the Northeast and Midwest and only about 1.3 in the South, where propane is pricey and electricity is cheap.

Against efficient natural gas, the bar is high in the Northeast and Midwest (4.7) and moderate in the South (3.2). Few air-source systems average 4.7 over a northern winter. That does not mean heat pumps make no sense in gas homes: they also replace the air conditioner, and the comparison changes with your actual utility rates. But on heating fuel cost alone, at this winter's forecast prices, a 95% gas furnace beats a heat pump averaging a seasonal COP below 3.2 in all four EIA regions. For a full operating-cost model with your own numbers, use our heat pump vs gas furnace operating cost method, and for the purchase-price side see the heat pump vs gas furnace true cost comparison.

Your own break-even uses your own rates. If your utility charges a seasonal heat pump rate, or your gas bill carries a large fixed monthly charge you would drop by disconnecting, the result moves. Divide your all-in electricity rate per kWh by 0.003412 to get resistance cost per million Btu, then divide that by your cost per million Btu from the other fuel.

Region by region: what is actually driving this winter

National averages blur four different winters. EIA's base case assumes heating degree days (a measure of how cold it is, summed over the season) change by these amounts from last winter: Northeast 12% warmer, Midwest 2% warmer, South 1% colder, West 25% colder, U.S. unchanged.

Northeast: milder weather, dearer oil

Forecast use falls for every fuel in the Northeast, by 6% to 10%, the largest declines of the four regions, because EIA expects about 12% fewer heating degree days. That is why gas spending falls 14% and propane 15% even though prices drop only 5% and 6%. Electricity spending falls 3% despite a 4% price increase. Oil households, concentrated here, take the 21% increase.

Weather is the swing factor. EIA's outlook includes side cases in which every region is 10% colder or 10% warmer than the base case. If the Northeast winter turns out normal rather than mild, consumption and bills land well above the base forecast, and the oil increase is felt in full.

Midwest: the cheapest gas in the country

Midwest gas is forecast at $10.38 per Mcf, the lowest regional price, and spending falls 10% to $613. Electricity spending edges up 3% to $1,380. The Midwest's mix is what makes heat pumps a hard sell on fuel cost against gas here (break-even COP 4.7) but an easy one against propane in rural areas without gas service (2.1).

South: falling gas prices, flat use

The South gets the largest gas price cut (16%), so spending falls 15% to $511. Electricity is the main heating fuel in much of the region, and spending rises 3% to $1,079 on a 4% price increase with flat use. Propane is flat at $1,164.

West: a colder winter does the damage

The West is the outlier. EIA assumes 25% more heating degree days than last winter's unusually mild season, so gas use rises 17% and gas spending rises 7% even with an 8% price cut. Electricity spending rises 9%. If you heat in the West and last winter's bills looked unusually low, this is the reason this winter's will not.

Scaling the forecast to your own house

EIA's averages describe nobody's house exactly. You can translate them to yours with last winter's bills, because the forecast is built from two changes you can apply directly: price and weather.

Worked example (illustration with stated inputs). A Midwest household used 70 Mcf of natural gas from November 2025 through March 2026. EIA forecasts the Midwest at 2% fewer heating degree days and $10.38 per Mcf this winter.

The $10.38 price is EIA's regional average. Your utility's tariff may split the bill into a fixed monthly charge plus a per-therm rate, so the cleaner version of this calculation uses your own rate sheet: fixed charges × 5 months, plus forecast use × your per-unit rate. Your gas bill may show therms or hundred cubic feet (Ccf). One Ccf is 100 cubic feet, so 10 Ccf equal 1 Mcf, and one therm is 100,000 Btu.

For delivered fuels (oil and propane), the same logic works with gallons. If you burned 600 gallons of heating oil last winter and you are in the Northeast, expect fewer gallons in a mild winter but price each one near the forecast $5.26 unless you locked a contract price earlier in the year. A contract or pre-buy price replaces the forecast price in your math; it does not change how many gallons the house needs.

If you heat with electricity, isolate the heating part first. Take your average monthly kWh in a shoulder month with neither heat nor air conditioning (often October or May), subtract it from each winter month, and what remains is roughly heating plus the extra lighting and hot water use of winter. That remainder is the part that scales with weather; the baseline does not. Our guide to reading smart-meter interval data shows how to pull the monthly and hourly figures from a utility portal.

What changed for anyone thinking of switching fuels

Fuel price forecasts are the reason many households look at switching in a winter like this one, especially oil households facing a 21% increase. Three policy changes in the past year shape what that switch costs, and the EIA outlook does not discuss them.

The federal heat pump tax credit is gone for new installations. Section 25C of the tax code, which allowed a credit of up to $2,000 a year for a qualifying heat pump, does not apply to property placed in service after December 31, 2025. A heat pump installed this winter does not qualify.

The federal electrification rebate no longer funds fuel switching. DOE Program Notice 26-2, effective May 29, 2026, removed fuel-switching upgrades (replacing non-electric equipment) from the state-run High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebate program (HEEHR, often called HEAR). The notice limits those rebates to upgrades from existing electric equipment to more efficient electric equipment, plus new construction, and gave launched state programs three months to make the change. An oil or propane household can no longer expect a HEEHR heat pump rebate. The full detail is in our state-by-state heat pump rebate guide.

The whole-home rebate is a separate track. HOMES rebates, which pay for modeled or measured energy savings, received their own notice (26-1) on the same date. That notice does not contain a fuel-switching ban. Where a state has launched HOMES, a project that cuts modeled energy use by 20% or more can still qualify regardless of the starting fuel, subject to the state's rules.

In Canada, the Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program has closed to new applicants. Natural Resources Canada stopped taking applications on July 31, 2026. Approved participants have until January 31, 2027 to complete and pay for the work and upload final receipts and the attestation form. The grant was up to $10,000, and the program is moving to Environment and Climate Change Canada.

Put together: an oil-heated U.S. household that switches this winter does so largely on running-cost math (the 1.2 break-even COP above) plus any state, utility or HOMES money its address still offers. A gas household gets a weak running-cost case at forecast prices in the North, so a switch there is usually driven by an air conditioner that needs replacing anyway, or by a hybrid setup that keeps the furnace for the coldest hours. Our guide to dual-fuel heat pump backup explains how a switchover temperature is set from exactly the break-even COP calculated above.

Where this forecast can go wrong

The outlook is a base case, and EIA describes average household expenditures as a broad guide for comparing one winter with the last. Four things move real bills away from it.

Weather. EIA's colder and warmer side cases shift heating degree days by 10% in every region. Heating use tracks degree days closely, so a 10% colder winter raises the weather-sensitive part of a bill by roughly 10%. For gas and oil homes, nearly the whole winter bill is weather-sensitive. For all-electric homes, only the heating portion is.

Delivered-fuel pricing. Oil and propane are bought by the delivery, from a dealer, at a price that can move week to week. EIA's $5.26 and $2.52 are seasonal averages. A household with a fixed-price or capped contract will pay that price instead; a household buying at the spot price during a cold snap may pay more. Rural propane prices also differ widely from the regional average.

Utility tariffs. EIA's prices are regional averages; your bill applies your own utility's tariff, including any fixed monthly charges. A utility rate case approved mid-winter, a tiered rate that charges more for use above a threshold, or a time-of-use plan can all change your effective price. Electricity prices were already higher this summer than last: the U.S. residential average in August 2026 was 18.16 cents per kWh, against 17.57 cents in August 2025, per EIA's Electric Power Monthly.

Your house. Comfort settings, occupancy, insulation and equipment condition dominate. A furnace with a failing blower motor, a heat pump stuck on emergency heat or a duct leak to the attic can add more to a bill than the entire forecast change.

Cutting this winter's bill without new equipment

A forecast is only useful if it changes a decision. The measures below cost little and apply this winter.

• Check that a heat pump is not running on resistance heat when it should not be. An auxiliary or emergency heat setting left on, or a thermostat that calls the strips too early, turns a COP 2.5 machine into a COP 1 heater for those hours, which multiplies the cost of that heat by 2.5. Our heat pump blowing cold air diagnostic covers the controls.
• Lock in or compare delivered-fuel prices before the coldest months if your dealer offers a fixed or capped plan, and compare the plan price with EIA's forecast before signing.
• Seal the obvious air leaks. Attic hatches, rim joists and plumbing penetrations are typical leak points, and sealing them reduces the weather-sensitive part of the bill whatever the fuel. A blower door test finds the big ones.
• Use a space heater only where the arithmetic works. Heating one room with a 1,500-watt resistance heater can cost less than heating the whole house with propane or oil, and less than a 95% gas furnace only when the room needs under about a quarter of the house's heat. Our space heater running-cost guide works through the break-even.

If you are heading into the season with oil or propane and the break-even table above caught your attention, the next step is to price the switch properly. You'll want to see the heat pump installation cost breakdown before you call contractors, because the running-cost gap only pays off if the installed price is in line.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much will it cost to heat a home this winter?

EIA's October 2026 forecast for November through March is about $640 for natural gas households, $1,196 for electricity households, $1,246 for propane households and $2,115 for heating oil households. These are averages across very different homes and climates, and the electricity figure includes all household electricity use, not only heating.

Why are heating oil costs going up 21% this winter?

EIA forecasts the heating oil price at $5.26 a gallon, 34% above last winter, because of higher global crude and distillate prices, reduced global refining activity and low U.S. distillate inventories. A milder Northeast winter is expected to cut oil use by 9%, so the bill rises less than the price.

Is propane or natural gas cheaper for heating?

At this winter's U.S. average forecast prices, natural gas is far cheaper per unit of heat: about $13.66 per million Btu delivered by a 95% gas furnace against about $29.01 for a 95% propane furnace. Propane is usually chosen because gas service is not available, not because it is cheaper.

Is a heat pump cheaper to run than gas heat this winter?

It depends on the region and the heat pump's seasonal efficiency. At EIA's forecast prices, a heat pump needs a seasonal COP of about 4.7 to match a 95% gas furnace in the Northeast and Midwest, 3.2 in the South and 3.9 in the West. Against propane or heating oil, the bar is much lower: about 2 for propane in the North and roughly 1.2 for oil at U.S. average prices.

Does EIA's electricity figure include heat pumps and baseboard heat separately?

No. EIA reports one figure for all homes whose main heating fuel is electricity, which mixes heat pumps with resistance heat such as baseboards and electric furnaces. The figure also covers all electricity use in those homes, apart from air conditioning, which EIA removes.

When does EIA update the winter forecast?

The Winter Fuels Outlook was published with the October 6, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, and the next release is scheduled for November 10, 2026. Check the latest release before budgeting, because price and weather assumptions change through the season.

How the numbers on this page were built

Every spending, price and consumption figure comes from EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook released October 6, 2026, re-checked on October 28, 2026. Heat contents (1,036 Btu per cubic foot of gas, 3,412 Btu per kWh, 91,452 Btu per gallon of propane, 138,500 Btu per gallon of heating oil) come from EIA's British thermal units page. The 95%, 80% and 85% efficiencies and the seasonal COPs of 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0 are planning assumptions we chose, not EIA figures; change them to your equipment's ratings and the same arithmetic applies. EnergyBS recomputed every derived cost and break-even with a script before publishing, and the figure's data table lists each input. The results are planning estimates, not financial advice or a quote for your home.