Running Costs: When a Heat Pump Beats Oil in Massachusetts
Massachusetts electricity is expensive by national standards, which makes the oil comparison closer than in most states. Electricity prices differ by utility, by supply option and by month, so the tables below use a range. Read your own bill: divide the total charge for delivery plus supply by the kWh used to get your all-in rate.
Heat pump. Heat costs the all-in rate divided by the seasonal coefficient of performance (COP). COP is an assumption here; cold-climate units in Massachusetts commonly land between 2 and 3 across a season. Our cold-climate performance data shows why it falls on the coldest days.
| All-in electricity rate |
Heat at COP 2.5 |
Heat at COP 3.0 |
| 25 cents/kWh |
10.0 cents/kWh |
8.3 cents/kWh |
| 30 cents/kWh |
12.0 cents/kWh |
10.0 cents/kWh |
| 35 cents/kWh |
14.0 cents/kWh |
11.7 cents/kWh |
Oil. A gallon of heating oil holds about 138,500 BTU (EIA). At an assumed 80% seasonal efficiency for an older boiler or furnace, that is about 110,800 BTU of delivered heat, or 32.5 kWh. So oil heat costs the price per gallon divided by 32.5.
| Oil price per gallon |
Heat at 80% efficiency |
| $3.25 |
10.0 cents/kWh |
| $3.75 |
11.5 cents/kWh |
| $4.25 |
13.1 cents/kWh |
Break-even oil prices. Multiply the heat pump's cost per kWh of heat by 32.5:
| All-in electricity rate |
Break-even oil price, COP 2.5 |
Break-even oil price, COP 3.0 |
| 25 cents |
$3.25/gal |
$2.71/gal |
| 30 cents |
$3.90/gal |
$3.25/gal |
| 35 cents |
$4.55/gal |
$3.79/gal |
Read that table carefully. At 30 cents a kWh, a heat pump averaging a COP of 2.5 only beats oil when oil costs more than about $3.90 a gallon. The savings case in Massachusetts depends on getting a high seasonal COP, which comes from a properly sized cold-climate system in a weatherized house, and on the rate you pay. Against electric baseboard the case is simple: resistance heat costs the full rate per kWh, so any heat pump cuts it by its COP. Against propane, run the same division with your propane price and efficiency; it is often the more expensive fuel per unit of heat. Our heat pump vs gas furnace operating cost page covers the gas comparison.
Worked Example 1: An Oil-Heated Colonial in Worcester
These households are hypothetical. Rebate rates come from Mass Save's page as read on November 13, 2026; the quotes, oil use, rates and COP are labelled assumptions.
The house. A 1950s 2,000 square foot colonial, National Grid electric, oil boiler. It burns an assumed 850 gallons a year. The Home Energy Assessment recommends $4,500 of attic insulation and air sealing, which is more than $1,000, so weatherization comes first.
The plan. Weatherize, then install a 3.5-ton ducted cold-climate heat pump as the whole-home system, with the boiler decommissioned. Assumed quote: $21,000 including electrical work.
Household A: standard incentives.
| Line |
Amount |
| Weatherization quote |
$4,500 |
| Mass Save insulation incentive at 75%, the low end of its range |
-$3,375 |
| Homeowner share of weatherization |
$1,125 |
| Heat pump quote |
$21,000 |
| Whole-home rebate: 3.5 tons x $2,650 = $9,275, capped |
-$8,500 |
| Federal 25C credit (ended) |
$0 (was up to $2,000 in 2025) |
| Net cost, heat pump plus weatherization |
$13,625 |
| HEAT Loan at 0%, up to $25,000 |
Covers all of it |
The 75% figure is the low end of Mass Save's 75% to 100% range; your assessment report will show the actual incentive. In 2025 the same project would also have earned up to $2,000 from 25C on the heat pump and 30% of the $1,125 insulation share, about $340, so roughly $2,340 is what the federal change cost this household.
Household B: income-based enhanced offers. Same house, assuming the household's income tier earns the full $16,000 maximum and 100% off weatherization; lower tiers get less, so confirm yours with Mass Save.
| Line |
Amount |
| Weatherization, assumed at 100% off, the top of Mass Save's range |
$0 |
| Heat pump quote |
$21,000 |
| Enhanced heat pump rebate, up to |
-$16,000 |
| Net cost |
$5,000 |
Running cost. 850 gallons times 32.5 kWh is about 27,600 kWh of heat; weatherization cuts that by an assumed 15%, to 23,500 kWh. At a COP of 2.7 the heat pump uses about 8,700 kWh. At an all-in 30 cents that is $2,610 a year. The oil bill before weatherization, at an assumed $3.75 a gallon, was $3,188. The saving is about $580 a year against the old oil bill, and much of it comes from the weatherization; part of the remaining value is central air conditioning the house did not have.
What that means. For Household A, the heat pump does not pay back on fuel savings alone at these assumptions; it is a comfort, cooling and decarbonization purchase financed at 0%. For Household B, $5,000 against about $580 a year is under 9 years, and better if oil prices rise. If your all-in rate is 25 cents, the heat pump's running cost falls to about $2,175 and the saving nearly doubles, to about $1,010. Run the numbers on your own bill before signing.
Worked Example 2: An Electric Baseboard Ranch on the South Shore
The house. A 1,300 square foot 1990s ranch, Eversource electric, heated by baseboards. Space heating uses an assumed 11,000 kWh a year. The assessment recommends $800 of weatherization, under the $1,000 line, so the whole-home rebate is available without waiting.
The plan. A 2.5-ton multi-zone ductless system with heads in each main room, set up as the primary heat, with the baseboards disconnected from the heated zones (the partial-home offer requires the displaced fuel source to be disconnected; ask Mass Save what the whole-home offer requires for baseboards). Assumed quote: $15,500.
| Line |
Amount |
| Heat pump quote |
$15,500 |
| Whole-home rebate: 2.5 tons x $2,650 |
-$6,625 |
| Net cost |
$8,875 |
Running cost. Baseboards turn 11,000 kWh into 11,000 kWh of heat. A heat pump at a COP of 2.5 uses 4,400 kWh for the same heat. The 6,600 kWh saved is worth $1,980 a year at 30 cents. Payback: $8,875 divided by $1,980 is about 4.5 years, and the house gains air conditioning.
The light plant version. Put the same ranch in a municipal light plant town and the Mass Save electric rebate line becomes zero. The homeowner's rebate is whatever the light plant offers, and some light plants charge less per kWh than the investor-owned utilities, which would shorten payback even without a rebate. Compare your light plant's rate with the 30 cents used here. Call the light plant before getting quotes.