Ontario and Quebec: Degree Days From the Building Code, Prices From the Regulator
Canadian degree days use a base of 18C, which is 64.4F, close enough to the US 65F base that multiplying Celsius degree days by 1.8 gives a usable Fahrenheit equivalent. Ontario's Building Code, Supplementary Standard SB-1, lists degree days below 18C for Ontario municipalities: 3,520 for Toronto City Hall, 3,800 for Etobicoke and Scarborough, 4,440 for Ottawa City Hall and 5,650 for Thunder Bay. SB-1 notes that its degree days were compiled for the 25 years ending in 2006, so they cover an older period than NOAA's 1991-2020 normals and may differ from recent winters.
| Location (SB-1 degree days below 18C) |
Fahrenheit equivalent |
UA 300, kWh/yr |
UA 500, kWh/yr |
UA 750, kWh/yr |
| Toronto City Hall (3,520) |
6,336 |
5,348 |
8,913 |
13,370 |
| Ottawa City Hall (4,440) |
7,992 |
6,746 |
11,243 |
16,865 |
| Thunder Bay (5,650) |
10,170 |
8,584 |
14,307 |
21,461 |
Seasonal COP 2.5, space heating only. Toronto's suburbs at 3,800 degree days use about 8% more than the City Hall row.
Toronto sits between Chicago and Minneapolis on degree days, and Thunder Bay is colder than any US city in the first table. In Thunder Bay a seasonal COP of 2.5 is optimistic for most equipment; read the UA row and scale by 2.5 divided by your expected COP.
Ontario: the marginal price is the upper tier or the time-of-use period
The Ontario Energy Board's Regulated Price Plan prices from November 1, 2026 are 11.2 cents per kWh for the first 1,000 kWh a month in winter and 13.2 cents above that on the tiered plan, or 9.1, 14.6 and 18.9 cents for off-peak, mid-peak and on-peak on time-of-use. The ultra-low overnight plan charges 3.7 cents overnight and 37.7 cents on-peak. All of these are commodity prices; your distributor's delivery charge, part of which varies with kWh, comes on top.
A house that already uses a few hundred kWh a month on lights, appliances and hot water will push most of its winter heat pump use above the 1,000 kWh threshold, so the 13.2-cent upper tier is the marginal rate for the tiered plan. On that basis the commodity cost for the UA 500 Toronto house is 8,913 x 0.132 = $1,177 a year (CAD), and the Ottawa house is $1,484, before delivery charges and the Ontario Electricity Rebate. On time-of-use, the cost depends on when the compressor runs. A heat pump holds a steady setpoint around the clock, and nights and weekends are off-peak, so a large share of its use falls at 9.1 cents. Our Ontario electricity rates explainer walks through choosing between the plans, and the Ontario heat pump cost guide covers installed prices and rebates.
Quebec: Rate D's 40 kWh per day decides which price the heat pump pays
Hydro-Quebec's Rate D, effective April 1, 2026, charges a system access charge of 46.154 cents a day, 7.065 cents per kWh for the first 40 kWh multiplied by the days in the billing period, and 11.142 cents per kWh for the rest. The threshold is applied to the whole period, so a 62-day bill has a 2,480 kWh first tier.
A worked bill shows how this lands. Suppose a household uses 4,500 kWh over a 62-day winter period (an illustrative figure, not a typical one):
- First tier: 2,480 kWh x $0.07065 = $175.21
- Second tier: 2,020 kWh x $0.11142 = $225.07
- Access charge: 62 days x $0.46154 = $28.62
- Total before taxes: $428.90
Every additional kWh the heat pump uses in that period costs 11.142 cents, because the first tier is already full. In an electrically heated home whose winter use already passes 40 kWh a day, the second-tier price is the right one for heating estimates. At that price, a house with Ottawa's degree days and UA 500 would pay 11,243 x 0.11142 = $1,253 a year for heat pump electricity. Montreal's own degree days are not in Ontario's table, so a Quebec reader should use the bill method in the next section, which needs no degree-day figure at all.
Quebec households on Rate Flex D pay 46.463 cents per kWh during winter peak events and 4.886 cents (first 40 kWh a day) or 9.103 cents otherwise. A heat pump that keeps running through a peak event costs about four times Rate D's 11.142-cent second-tier price for those hours, so the plan pays only if the house can coast through events with the heat pump turned down.
Turning Last Winter's Fuel Bill Into Heat Pump kWh
Degree days and an assumed UA give a starting point. Your own heating history gives a better one, because it already includes your house's air leaks, your thermostat habits and your local weather. The conversion has five steps:
- Total the heating fuel for 12 months from bills or delivery slips.
- Remove the non-heating use. If gas also heats water, cooks or dries clothes, average the four lowest summer months and multiply by 12. That is the baseload; subtract it.
- Convert to Btu of fuel. EIA's factors: 100,000 Btu per therm, 1,036 Btu per cubic foot of gas, 138,500 Btu per gallon of heating oil, 91,452 Btu per gallon of propane.
- Multiply by the old system's efficiency to get the heat actually delivered to the house. The AFUE is printed on the furnace's rating plate; an 80% furnace delivers 0.80 of the fuel's Btu.
- Divide by 3,412 and by the heat pump's seasonal COP.
Three worked cases follow. The household figures are illustrations with stated inputs; the conversion factors and degree days are sourced.
A Chicago gas house
The household used 950 therms over 12 months. June to September bills were 19, 17, 16 and 18 therms, an average of 17.5, so the baseload is 17.5 x 12 = 210 therms a year.
- Heating gas: 950 - 210 = 740 therms
- Fuel energy: 740 x 100,000 = 74.0 million Btu
- Delivered heat at 80% AFUE: 74.0 x 0.80 = 59.2 million Btu
- Heat pump at COP 2.5: 59,200,000 / 3,412 / 2.5 = 6,940 kWh a year
- At COP 2.0: 8,675 kWh
- At the East North Central 2026 price of 19.22 cents: $1,334 a year at COP 2.5
A Boston oil house
The house burned 750 gallons of heating oil in a year, and the boiler heats only the house (hot water is electric). Assume the boiler's rated efficiency is 80%.
- Fuel energy: 750 x 138,500 = 103.9 million Btu
- Delivered heat: 103.9 x 0.80 = 83.1 million Btu
- Heat pump at COP 2.5: 83,100,000 / 3,412 / 2.5 = 9,742 kWh a year
- At COP 2.0: 12,178 kWh
- At New England's 28.84 cents: $2,810 a year at COP 2.5, or $3,512 at COP 2.0
A propane house
A rural house used 600 gallons of propane for heat with a 90% furnace.
- Fuel energy: 600 x 91,452 = 54.9 million Btu
- Delivered heat: 54.9 x 0.90 = 49.4 million Btu
- Heat pump at COP 2.5: 5,789 kWh a year
The bonus: your own heat loss number
Once you have delivered heat, divide it by 24 and by the degree days for the same 12 months, and you have the house's UA. For the Chicago house, using the normal year: 59,200,000 / 24 / 5,974 = 413 Btu/h per degree F. For the Boston oil house: 83,100,000 / 24 / 5,546 = 624.
That number lets you read the monthly table directly. The Chicago house sits at 413 / 500 = 0.83 of the UA 500 column, so its January heat pump use is about 1,735 x 0.83 = 1,433 kWh at COP 2.5. The Boston house is 1.25 times the column, so its January is about 1,908 kWh. It also gives you a sanity check on a contractor's load calculation. A Manual J design load that implies a UA far above what your fuel history shows usually means an oversized system.
For the bill year to match the normal, use the degree days for the same 12 months the bills cover. Some gas utilities print the period's degree days on the bill; if last winter was 10% colder than normal, divide the heating fuel by 1.10 before converting. Canadian gas bills in cubic metres need the heat value your utility uses for that period, which most Canadian gas bills or utility rate pages state in gigajoules or megajoules per cubic metre; multiply cubic metres by that value, then convert 1 GJ to 277.8 kWh of fuel energy.
The steps assume the old system's efficiency held at its rating. An old furnace with leaky ducts in an unheated attic or crawlspace delivers less than its AFUE suggests, which makes the bill method overstate the heat the house truly needs. If the heat pump will use the same ducts, the loss carries over and the estimate stays fair. If you are switching to ductless heads inside the heated space, expect slightly less electricity than the calculation shows.
Where January Breaks the Seasonal Average
A seasonal COP is an average over a whole winter. The coldest weeks run below it, and that is where the kWh concentrate.
ENERGY STAR's cold-climate criteria for non-ducted split heat pumps require a COP of at least 1.75 at 5F. That is a floor for the category, not a typical value, but it shows how far efficiency can fall from a seasonal 2.5. Minneapolis's January normal mean temperature is 16.2F, and many January nights drop well below that.
Rerun January for the UA 500 Minneapolis house at different COPs:
| January COP assumed |
kWh in January |
Cost at 14.49 cents |
| 2.5 (seasonal figure) |
2,128 |
$308 |
| 2.0 |
2,660 |
$385 |
| 1.75 (ENERGY STAR cold-climate floor at 5F) |
3,040 |
$440 |
The 912 kWh between the first and last rows is a fair estimate of what one hard January can add. It also explains a common surprise: the annual bill can match a forecast built on the seasonal COP while the January bill runs 25% to 43% above the forecast's January.
Two more effects show up in cold weather.
Resistance backup. When the heat pump cannot keep up with the load, electric strips or a backup furnace make up the gap. Electric strips run at a COP of 1, so each hour they carry the load uses 2.5 times the electricity the heat pump would have used for that same heat. A system sized close to the design load uses strips only on the coldest few days; one sized for cooling in a cold climate may use them for weeks. Our guide to heat pump backup heat and dual fuel covers lockout temperatures and how to keep strips from running when they are not needed.
Power draw at any moment. kW is the rate, kWh the amount. A heat pump delivering 36,000 Btu/h of heat at a COP of 2.5 draws about 36,000 / 3,412 / 2.5 = 4.2 kW. At COP 1.75 the same heat output takes 6.0 kW. In an hour at full output, that is 4.2 to 6.0 kWh. Most of the season it runs well below full output, because inverter compressors slow down when the load is small. If kW and kWh still blur together, our kW vs kWh explainer sorts them out.
Spotting the Heat Pump in Your Monthly Use
Once a heat pump is in, the bill shows total kWh, not heating kWh. Separating them takes one summer and one winter of data.
Take the average of the two or three months when the house neither heats nor cools, usually May and September or October in the northern US and Canada. That is the non-HVAC baseload: fridge, lights, cooking, laundry, hot water if electric. Subtract it from each winter month. What remains is mostly heat pump.
Then compare it with the monthly table. If the Chicago house above (UA 413) shows 1,450 kWh of heating in January against a predicted 1,433, the system is performing to plan. If it shows 2,200, something is pulling efficiency down: strips running too often, a dirty filter, a setback schedule that forces long full-speed recoveries, or a refrigerant problem. A one-month gap after an unusually cold spell is normal; a gap that persists through February and March is worth a service call.
Smart thermostats and many heat pump apps report runtime and, on some models, auxiliary heat runtime. If aux hours climb on days above your lockout temperature, that is where the extra kWh are going.